God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

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13.10.2010 21:28
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

This thread covers everything about God, the world, the economy, the markets and the Swiss market in particular. Please write in English if possible.

(Explicitly unwelcome are extended discourses about asteroids on their crash course to planet earth or any type of twin tower conspiracy theories. Please use the appropriate threads for those undisputably very important topics Wink )

If you think your English is not perfect then still do not hesitate to use it. My English is not perfect either. :oops:

Happy conversation! Biggrin

Aufklappen

Gruss
iGwt

"Es ist umsonst, dass ihr früh aufsteht und euch spät erst niedersetzt, um das Brot der Mühsal zu essen; denn der Herr gibt es den Seinen im Schlaf." ( Psalm 127:2 )

08.12.2010 17:25
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

----

Der Weise gewinnt mehr Vorteile durch seine Feinde als der Dummkopf durch seine Freunde.
Benjamin Franklin

08.12.2010 16:08
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!
19.10.2010 21:29
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

Elias wrote:

Overflow wrote:
Is this the thread to get familiar with business english? Biggrin

First lesson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZe4LzAG1lA

Second lesson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1IYi6bFyjw&NR=1

Smile

LolLolLol

Hauptsache Gewinn...

19.10.2010 19:06
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

Je ne comprendspas:( Sorry i am too stupid for this thread, i am gonna to make money.....they never sleeps :twisted:

equity holder :"Meine Empfehlung fürs daytraden":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1RYH9bJkps&feature=related

PowerDau:"Ouw shit, das giit Ohrächräbs!Mach das niemeh"

18.10.2010 18:30
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

@ Mali-P:

The little boy has got a new have. After he did his business, he looked what the have got. Wink

18.10.2010 17:16
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

jeah nice idea! 8)

One question, pls:

Wann sagt man got vor dem have, äh nachdem have? :?:

Ty for support Blum 3

equity holder :"Meine Empfehlung fürs daytraden":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1RYH9bJkps&feature=related

PowerDau:"Ouw shit, das giit Ohrächräbs!Mach das niemeh"

18.10.2010 11:08
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

Overflow wrote:

Is this the thread to get familiar with business english? Biggrin

First lesson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZe4LzAG1lA

Second lesson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1IYi6bFyjw&NR=1

Smile

----

Der Weise gewinnt mehr Vorteile durch seine Feinde als der Dummkopf durch seine Freunde.
Benjamin Franklin

17.10.2010 23:48
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

Is this the thread to get familiar with business english? Biggrin

Hauptsache Gewinn...

15.10.2010 18:24
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

I just moved this thread to "von user zu user" because of the wide subject.

Have fun with speaking. I look forward to reading from you Wink

15.10.2010 17:20
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

in_God_we_trust wrote:

What if there were more dollars chasing for more goods? Worldwide we have a GDP growth of around 4-5%. The goods' value is therefore increasing by that amount year after year. Thus money supply does also have to increase by that.

1. For the USA it simply does not matter which goods are produced in other countries. Money Supply within the US has to match US production and industrial production in the US look everything but bright:

(Except for military goods, of course)

Production in the US is lagging far behind monetary inflation of 12-18% in the last 10 years.

2. Times, where China is delivering it's production to America against debt obligations (T-Bills) is over or soon will be. From the point of view of the USA it's definitely not wise to count on Chinas, Asias continued willingness to keep financing us consumption on debts.

in_God_we_trust wrote:

5% of 55 trillion world GDP makes around 3 trillion per year.

...

Thus if nobody wants to borrow money at zero percent interest rate, the FED may inject 1 trillion into the american economy by QE per year, without any negative effect!

So the FED is printing all the new money in the world why other countries keep on producing without inflating their currency? Come on, be realistic!

The FED is allowed to generate new money in accordance to economic growth in the US.

Therefore US economy would have to increase by roughly 7.4% per year to justify 1 Trillion new dollars per year.

However, the US economy is far below this figure. Not to mention the 8.6 Trillion newly printed money within the last year.

If more money is chasing fewer goods, price inflation is inevitable!

The key lies in the word "chasing". So far, the newly printed money lies on Bank reserve deposits at the fed and is not (yet) "chasing" for goods. Thats why we still see a moderate CPI (except for agricultural products).

Once the banks change their lending policy and start lending again to consumers and corporations, this money will flood the economy and lead to fast rising prices.

Alternatively the FED would have to withdraw this money (creating a real monetary deflation) by rising interest rate busting the economy.

Both outcomes are not preferable.

15.10.2010 16:56
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

MarcusFabian wrote:

Will there be less dollars chasing for more goods or more dollars chasing for less goods?.

What if there were more dollars chasing for more goods? Worldwide we have a GDP growth of around 4-5%. The goods' value is therefore increasing by that amount year after year. Thus money supply does also have to increase by that.

5% of 55 trillion world GDP makes around 3 trillion per year. That means 3 trillion 2007, maybe 2 trillion 2008, 2 trillion 2009 and 3 trillion 2010, makes 10 trillion over the last 4 years. In addition to that we want a consumer goods' inflation of 2 %, that makes another 4 trillions over the last 4 years, makes a total of 14 trillion necessary money injection worldwide over the last 4 years.

In US dollar terms this means 25% of GDP, that makes around 4 trillions over the last four years or 1 trillion per year. Thus if nobody wants to borrow money at zero percent interest rate, the FED may inject 1 trillion into the american economy by QE per year, without any negative effect!

Gruss
iGwt

"Es ist umsonst, dass ihr früh aufsteht und euch spät erst niedersetzt, um das Brot der Mühsal zu essen; denn der Herr gibt es den Seinen im Schlaf." ( Psalm 127:2 )

15.10.2010 15:21
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

My guess is that you're still mixing up inflation/deflation as a pure monetary phenomenon (as originally defined) and the increase/decrease in prices.

Since the start of the financial crisis in autumn 2008, we experienced a huge asset price devaluation. Especially in US house prices and the stock market. You might conclude this to be a deflation (as do e.g. Paul Krugman, Robert Prechter). On the other side, we also experience an increasing monetary inflation, aka "Printing Money".

So what do we have? A huge increase in money supply (inflation) on one hand but an even bigger decrease in asset valuation, decreasing prices, deflation.

To make matters worse, we don't even have declining prices throughout the whole economy. Commodity prices for example are sharply rising again after a sharp decline in 2009.

So how come, that commodity prices are rising in a shrinking economy with demand down?

The answer is simple: Commodity prices are rising because our currency looses value. And currencies are losing value because central banks are printing money as if there were no tomorrow.

If you want to avoid all this intellectual turmoil in the inflation deflation debate, simply ask yourself one question: "Is my dollar buying more next year or less?"

Will there be less dollars chasing for more goods or more dollars chasing for less goods?

Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.

(Ben Bernanke, Speech nov 21, 2002)

http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm

Since that speech, Bernanke has the nickname "helicopter ben".

15.10.2010 15:03
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

in_God_we_trust wrote:

Hm.. I cannot divine the future. If there is any political crisis in the world, and there will be one, then the dollar will rise, that's for sure. When it will reach around 90 Rappen it will start to rebound afterwards I think.

I hope, you're right!!! Wink

Ich verliere nie! Entweder ich gewinne oder ich lerne!

15.10.2010 14:26
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

Hm.. I cannot divine the future. If there is any political crisis in the world, and there will be one, then the dollar will rise, that's for sure. When it will reach around 90 Rappen it will start to rebound afterwards I think.

Gruss
iGwt

"Es ist umsonst, dass ihr früh aufsteht und euch spät erst niedersetzt, um das Brot der Mühsal zu essen; denn der Herr gibt es den Seinen im Schlaf." ( Psalm 127:2 )

15.10.2010 13:38
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

in_God_we_trust wrote:

You are very courageous to bet in the $ in these times! But you may be right. After a while of further decline the $ surely will rebound. Happy day to you, too!

I hope for a rebound of the Dollar! What do you think, when does the rebound of the Dollar start?

Thank you for your answer!

Ich verliere nie! Entweder ich gewinne oder ich lerne!

15.10.2010 13:33
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

You are very courageous to bet in the $ in these times! But you may be right. After a while of further decline the $ surely will rebound. Happy day to you, too!

Gruss
iGwt

"Es ist umsonst, dass ihr früh aufsteht und euch spät erst niedersetzt, um das Brot der Mühsal zu essen; denn der Herr gibt es den Seinen im Schlaf." ( Psalm 127:2 )

15.10.2010 11:10
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

in_God_we_trust wrote:

Actually I like also a low $. Then my next vacation gets cheaper. Smile

Nice weekend!

I would like to have a higher US-Dollar, it's better for my Stocks in US-Dollar!!!

Oh happy Day!!! Wink

Ich verliere nie! Entweder ich gewinne oder ich lerne!

15.10.2010 11:00
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

Actually I like also a low $. Then my next vacation gets cheaper. Smile

Nice weekend!

Gruss
iGwt

"Es ist umsonst, dass ihr früh aufsteht und euch spät erst niedersetzt, um das Brot der Mühsal zu essen; denn der Herr gibt es den Seinen im Schlaf." ( Psalm 127:2 )

15.10.2010 10:29
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

I'm happy, because it's weekend in seven hours and the US-Dollar is rising!

Peace out!!!

Ich verliere nie! Entweder ich gewinne oder ich lerne!

15.10.2010 10:11
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God, the World, the Markets and the SMI. English please!

How are you friends? The weather is nice (above the fog and the clouds), the markets are rising (Gold and everything else, just the ten year treasuries are falling), so let's be happy and enjoying life! Cheers! Smile

Gruss
iGwt

"Es ist umsonst, dass ihr früh aufsteht und euch spät erst niedersetzt, um das Brot der Mühsal zu essen; denn der Herr gibt es den Seinen im Schlaf." ( Psalm 127:2 )